DEMOGRAPHY

Definition: the study of statistics such as births, deaths, income, or the incidence of disease, which illustrate the changing structure of human populations.

I have said many times, demography will be a required skillset in the study of tomorrow's airline networks.

Anecdotally, we have heard about populations in California and the Northeast US seeking refuge in less dense areas. Demand for air service will now require access to the traditional databases as well as Zillow. Front Door. Trulia.

This morning, Bloomberg has a story titled: Even before COVID 2,600 people a week were leaving New York City. Airlines have been slow to build back pre-COVID capacity to historic norms in New York, Boston, Chicago and Los Angeles to name a few.

Bloomberg based their analysis on the 2019 Census. Net daily population migrations (dom and int'l) between July 2018 and July 2019 were quantified.

Losing metro areas were: NYC (-376 net daily migrations); LA (-260); and CHI (-164).

Metro areas with the largest gains: PHX (+213); DAL (+183); AUS (+128); ATL (+119); TPA (+115); and HOU (+104).

Think about today's route map.

Will we need to apply a net population migration factor to slot values or gates?

Now boarding, nonstop service between BOI and HNL.

Just sayin'.

#swelbar