IT HAPPENS IN 3s

Whether lucky or not, our 2020 forecast for domestic traffic will be very close. My concern is that our '21 thinking is too conservative. It predicts less than 60% of '19s domestic traffic. It is influenced by the the economy and concern about moving the consumer confidence needle. Hoping we are very wrong.

Recently I drafted an article for AAAE's upcoming magazine. My research took me into the bowels of the Spanish Flu. But the economy that followed contributed to the decade being dubbed the "Roaring 20s" fueled by technological innovation and accommodative government policies.

Catching up on my reading, I came across an article by Julia Pollak in the WSJ. She points to three major shocks that will define the economy of 2020: COVID, racial unrest and an election that divided the nation.

She goes on to say that the story of 2021, however, will be of a great comeback. Others have also mentioned this century's "Roaring 20s".

The core of her thesis is technology and government policy. Brick and mortar will suffer. But,1.6M new business applications in 3q'20 + a strong financial sector that includes consumer savings equal to 10% of GDP since Feb '20 + a strong online economy will fuel a sustained recovery.

Hoping that the Rule of 3 remains intact.