THE "HASSLE FACTOR" WILL RETURN

For the last 7 weeks, thinking everyone has been thinking. Reading LinkedIn, smart minds are thinking about how to counsel their clients on what the hell this industry might look like on the other side.

We too. Just finished our version of a deep dive into the pandemic-induced abyss.

The square root symbol, not a letter in the alphabet, defines the shape of our initial forecast of the recovery. International is clear as mud.

Some will think our recovery time is too long for the market to resuscitate. However, we are persuaded by a recession deeply impacting the consumer's ability to buy after one trip to the Ozarks; the availability of business travel budgets; and a fervent belief the industry will be judicious in deploying capacity while cash balances are being replenished.

Yes, the industry will roll out of the recession into a new iteration of "Capacity Discipline". No real cost arbitrage strategies are available today that enabled lower cost carriers to grow at the expense of the network carriers like the period immediately after the shock of 9/11. This time, liquidity is the prized competitive tool.

And, the "Hassle Factor" will return. Remember when time spent at the airport after 9/11 decimated short-haul flying?

#swelbar