TEN REASONS WHY....

I am not on the V-shaped bandwagon. Seats are available. Thinking food and shelter wins.

1. Today's OECD forecast for GDP looks very much like our square root symbol - sharp down, nice bump, and then a slow growth trajectory;

2. The damage to the economy is deep. A large percentage of jobs in place on March 1 will not be there tomorrow;

3. "Capacity Discipline" coming out of this recession will be the carrier strategy to restore cash and rebuild balance sheets;

4. ULCCs, jetBlue, Alaska, Sun Country and Hawaiian growth cannot offset the reductions of the Big 3; Nor can Southwest;

5. The "Hassle Factor". Airport asset utilization will decline. Connecting banks will be fewer;

6. International service. Uneven. It fills a lot of domestic aircraft;

7. The same for small community air service although some will capture traffic arriving via the highway;

8. Business travel budgets. Conference travel. Leisure destinations being only partially open. Zoom and Teams. Second waves of COVID. To name a few;

9. The 2019 traffic generating fleet will be smaller (8.5% for the industry/17% for the network carriers); and

10. The recovery will be uneven geographically, not all hubs will survive.

Can I stop? I want to. Seats available?

#swelbar