MY SCREEN IS BLINKING RED

And it is not Rudolph's nose. It's Christmas week. I thought the season's colors were red AND green. Not this morning. Futures are red -- commodities, tech giants, Brent/WTI barrel prices, airlines and aircraft manufacturers too.

As a cellular customer, I thought that 5G was good. I digress.

Once again, don't try to make the words below out to reflect the opinions of any of my professional relationships.

How to think about 2021? The year kicked off a couple of days early when American (AA) and jetBlue (B6) announced a strategic partnership dubbed the Northeast Alliance (NEA). The combination was to have the largest network footprint in each New York and Boston. Formidable in Washington.

DoT agreed to terminate its review of the combination in return for certain commitments like promised network growth; slot divestitures at DCA and JFK; and antitrust compliance measures. A really smart move by AA/B6 with an administration having nearly two feet out of the door.

Then AA would announce a similar relationship with the best available airline on the west coast - Alaska (AS). Seattle would become an important gateway for AA -- AS would become a full member of oneworld.

AA's Pandemic Era commercial strategy would seem to be reactionary after Delta (DL) beat AA at every turn including the eye opener when DL grabbed LATAM right out from under the nose of the Ft. Worth carrier in 2019. AA's Pandemic Era response was to forge a relationship with GOL in Brazil in 2020 as a counterbalance. NOT. And a low-cost carrier replacement to LATAM certainly does not help to define the type of carrier AA will be going forward.

By the end of 2019, DL would not only have stolen LATAM away, but had already been building a focus city/gateway of its own in Seattle for years; in 2017 DL was building Boston because of the city's importance on the global map but also as a way to counter B6; and also in 2019, DL was building a presence in AA's backyard in Austin because of that city's importance on the global map.

Is AA really a catalyst for competition in the northeast as it claims? Or is it merely playing catch up by addressing puzzle pieces it gave away over the years that left the carrier structurally bereft of critical share in some of the most important domestic and international cities in the U.S.?

Back to the future? The year began with AA forging alliances. The coolest announcement of 2021 from a commercial relationship perspective is Allegiant's (G4) announcement of an alliance with Mexican carrier Viva Aerobus. New ULCC strategy.

Viva and G4 jointly submitted an application to the U.S. DoT for what G4 called a “fully integrated Commercial Alliance Agreement.” THIS combination will create new competition.

DL is making additional investments in LATAM and Aeromexico in Latin America and Virgin Atlantic in the U.K.

It's all about alliances and investments thus far when it comes to partnerships.

More to come I sense, #swelbar