BILL, BILL, BILL -- WHAT DAY IS IT BILL? (February 2023)

It is Groundhog Day. We are releasing the summary findings of our First Annual Airport/Air Service rankings.

Working in this business often feels like every day is Groundhog Day. You know - trying to make sense of why trendlines are ignored; why things never seem to change for certain industry stakeholders despite the fact that change is all around them; I forever struggle to understand why so many believe there is some political fix for a commercial reality and suddenly that reality will become sustainable again; that 45-year-old laws are to never be amended to reflect a changed infrastructure; that all things are created equal and that there is always a one size fits all solution hiding somewhere; or that any legislation/regulation of this industry will not be fraught with unintended consequences.

Explanation of the title: I still belly laugh at the GEICO commercial where the camel is walking through the cubicles calling out -- Mike, Mike, Mike, what day is it, Mike. Mike finally gives in acknowledging to the camel that it is hump day.

When groundhogs hibernate, their metabolic rate and body temperature can result in a loss of half of their weight by February. Now that sure as hell does not happen to me.

Groundhogs spend the winter hibernating in their burrows. Often, I hibernate by spending time at the computer trying to find different ways to think about/message my peeves raised above. It seems I see my shadow every year. This year Albert joined me in the burrow, and we created our airport ranking based on air service inputs only.

The analysis - while not always intuitive - helps to confirm what dots on the map/nodes on a network have staying power and those that might not.

All air service is not created equal because not all metro areas are equal. Everybody has a story for a network carrier that includes the "oh so yesterday" idea that without commercial air service a community will wither and die a painful economic death. Not all, but...

Given the significant presence of the ULCCs today, one cannot make the case that the service they provide is the same as the network carriers, the Hybrid Carriers or even Southwest for that matter. But that ULCC service has value to be sure and it should be reflected and appreciated on Capitol Hill too. The Swelbar-Zhong #AirportAccessibilityIndex quantifies the air service provided by different sectors selling different products. Not all air service products provided will have the same value proposition to each airport served.

If I am a mayor, a lender, a rating agency, a developer or an economic development group, I just might not want all happy talk that insiders can provide. We think it is better to understand weaknesses than it is to bathe in strengths that make you feel good about why a market continues to be relevant based on yesterday's thinking.

A copy of the summary is linked below.

Happy Groundhog Day,
Punxsutawney Bill