50 YEARS AGO TODAY...

..the first of three heavyweight fights between Muhammed Ali and Joe Frazier took place at Madison Square Garden. It was dubbed the "Fight of the Century".

Nose bleed seats went for $20 and ringside for $150. The fight was also playing at nearly 400 closed circuit venues around the country.

Bill, what the hell does this have to do with anything?

I am increasingly of the view that a fight for US domestic market relevance is going to break out. If networks were fragile before the Pandemic, there is more fragility today.

Ali was fragile as he was just coming back after being banned from boxing for 3 years for refusing the Vietnam draft. Frazier won this fight, but lost the next two.

With 2 new entrants, there will soon be 6 ULCCs; 3 network airlines comprised of 5 carriers; Southwest and Hawaiian. 13 airlines fighting for what will be a smaller pool of traffic and revenue for some time.

Like the fight, there will be nearly 400 domestic airports wanting to be a venue for service. Seats will be cheap. What do you call a previous mature market that rebuilds from zero demand? It certainly is not stimulation.

The fight for relevance among airlines and airports in the short to medium term will be fierce. Product differentiation will matter.